Our model gives Metalist 1925 Kharkiv a 43% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Bukovyna Chernivtsi.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Bukovyna Chernivtsi have done so in 1 of their last 3.