Our model gives Merthyr Town a 45% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Chorley.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Merthyr Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Chorley have done so in 2 of their last 2.