Our model gives Merstham a 44% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 35% for Ashford Town (Middlesex).

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Merstham have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Ashford Town (Middlesex) have done so in 1 of their last 1.