Our model gives Mercedes a 34% chance to win this one, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Estrella del Sur.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mercedes have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Estrella del Sur have done so in 0 of their last 4.