Our model gives Mercedes a 37% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Defensores de Cambaceres.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 31% likelihood against 69% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mercedes have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Defensores de Cambaceres have done so in 2 of their last 3.