Our model gives Melville United a 11% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 73% for Auckland City.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Melville United have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Auckland City have done so in 2 of their last 2.