Our model gives Melgar a 65% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Sporting Cristal.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Melgar have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Sporting Cristal have done so in 1 of their last 1.