Our model gives Melbourne Srbija a 57% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 24% for North Geelong Warriors.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Melbourne Srbija have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and North Geelong Warriors have done so in 3 of their last 4.