Our model gives Mbeya City a 35% chance to win this one, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Mashujaa.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mbeya City have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Mashujaa have done so in 0 of their last 1.