Our model gives Mbeya City a 47% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Dodoma Jiji.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mbeya City have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Dodoma Jiji have done so in 0 of their last 1.