Our model gives Mariehamn a 15% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 66% for SJK.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mariehamn have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and SJK have done so in 2 of their last 3.