Our model gives Maribor a 66% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Aluminij.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Maribor have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Aluminij have done so in 1 of their last 3.