Our model gives Manta a 38% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Mushuc Runa.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Manta have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Mushuc Runa have done so in 0 of their last 1.