Our model gives Mandurah City a 58% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Quinns.

Both teams are projected to score in 68% of simulations, against 32% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 73% likelihood against 27% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mandurah City have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Quinns have done so in 2 of their last 4.