Our model gives Malacateco a 55% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Xelajú.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Malacateco have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Xelajú have done so in 2 of their last 3.