Our model gives Malacateco a 64% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Suchitepéquez.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Malacateco have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Suchitepéquez have done so in 1 of their last 3.