Our model gives Mafra U19 a 13% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 67% for Benfica U19.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mafra U19 have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Benfica U19 have done so in 0 of their last 1.