Our model gives Machida Zelvia a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Urawa Reds.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Machida Zelvia have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Urawa Reds have done so in 2 of their last 2.