Our model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv a 31% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 46% for Lugano.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Maccabi Tel Aviv have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Lugano have done so in 5 of their last 6.