Our model gives Macarthur Rams a 25% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 54% for Blacktown Spartans.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Macarthur Rams have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Blacktown Spartans have done so in 3 of their last 4.