Our model gives Macará a 33% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 39% for Universidad Católica.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Macará have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Universidad Católica have done so in 2 of their last 3.