Our model gives Macará a 31% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 41% for Santos.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Macará have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Santos have done so in 3 of their last 6.