Our model gives Lyn a 44% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Sogndal.

Both teams are projected to score in 68% of simulations, against 32% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 67% likelihood against 33% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lyn have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Sogndal have done so in 2 of their last 3.