Our model gives Luzern a 42% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Thun.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Luzern have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Thun have done so in 1 of their last 1.