Our model gives Luki-Energiya a 15% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 64% for Ural.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Luki-Energiya have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Ural have done so in 2 of their last 4.