Our model gives Lugano a 48% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Servette.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lugano have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6, and Servette have done so in 3 of their last 4.