Our model gives Lugano a 58% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 21% for NSÍ.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lugano have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6, and NSÍ have done so in 4 of their last 5.