Our model gives Lugano II a 25% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 55% for Bavois.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lugano II have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Bavois have done so in 2 of their last 3.