Our model gives Louisville City a 65% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 15% for San Antonio.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Louisville City have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and San Antonio have done so in 1 of their last 3.