Our model gives Louisville City a 68% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Loudoun United.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Louisville City have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Loudoun United have done so in 0 of their last 3.