Our model gives Loughgall a 69% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Armagh City.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Loughgall have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Armagh City have done so in 0 of their last 3.