Our model gives Londrina a 30% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 39% for Fortaleza.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Londrina have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Fortaleza have done so in 2 of their last 4.