Our model gives Lokomotive Leipzig a 26% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 51% for Erzgebirge Aue.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lokomotive Leipzig have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Erzgebirge Aue have done so in 4 of their last 5.