Our model gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 42% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Cherno More.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Cherno More have done so in 3 of their last 4.