Our model gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 31% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 39% for Arda.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Arda have done so in 1 of their last 2.