Our model gives Lokomotiv a 33% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 38% for Neftchi.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lokomotiv have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Neftchi have done so in 2 of their last 4.