Our model gives Lokomotiv Moskva a 42% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Dinamo Moskva.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lokomotiv Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5, and Dinamo Moskva have done so in 2 of their last 4.