Our model gives Lokomotiv Moskva a 53% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Akhmat Grozny.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lokomotiv Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Akhmat Grozny have done so in 0 of their last 1.