Our model gives Liverpool a 37% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Racing.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Liverpool have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Racing have done so in 1 of their last 3.