Our model gives Lions W a 69% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 15% for Sunshine Coast Wanderers W.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lions W have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Sunshine Coast Wanderers W have done so in 2 of their last 4.