Our model gives Linfield a 66% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Crusaders.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Linfield have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Crusaders have done so in 2 of their last 2.