Our model gives Lincoln City a 46% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Swansea City.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lincoln City have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Swansea City have done so in 1 of their last 2.