Our model gives Libertad a 48% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Sportivo Ameliano.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Libertad have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Sportivo Ameliano have done so in 0 of their last 4.