Our model gives Libertad a 43% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Orense.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Libertad have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Orense have done so in 2 of their last 3.