Our model gives Libertad a 42% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Emelec.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Libertad have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Emelec have done so in 1 of their last 3.