Our model gives Libertad a 56% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Deportivo Recoleta.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Libertad have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Deportivo Recoleta have done so in 4 of their last 5.