Our model gives Lexington a 66% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Monterey Bay.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lexington have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Monterey Bay have done so in 1 of their last 1.