Our model gives Lexington a 49% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Colorado Springs.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lexington have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Colorado Springs have done so in 1 of their last 3.