Our model gives Levski Sofia a 83% chance to win this one, against 12% for a draw and 5% for Septemvri Sofia.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Levski Sofia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 6, and Septemvri Sofia have done so in 3 of their last 3.