Our model gives Levski Sofia a 37% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 37% for AEK Athens.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Levski Sofia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 6.